Bitcoin (BTC) bears thinking that $58,000 was this cycle’s top will be sorely disappointed, fresh investment data from past bull markets shows.
Compiled by on-chain analytics resource Whalemap, statistics covering BTC buys of between $5 triệu và $7 million conclude that even at recent all-time highs, Bitcoin was far from a “macro top.”
“No FOMO in sight” cho BTC
Trong 2017 and shorter 2019 thị trường bò tót, Bitcoin saw mass buy-ins of a similar size — $5-7 triệu.
When investments of that amount hit a peak, price action began to reverse, signalling the start of consolidation or a heavier retracement.
According to Whalemap, cash injections in that area have been far from their previous peaks this year, indicating that the current correction will likely be temporary and on par with BTC’s typical corrections during a bull run.
“Previous macro tops have occurred when thousands of transactions worth 5 đến 7 million dollars each were flooding the blockchain. True FOMO,” researchers tweeted on Feb. 25.
“Hiện tại, no such FOMO in sight for BTC.”
The expectation of further buy-ins supports existing data that came to light this week, notably from Coinbase Pro, which has seen multiple tranches of over 10,000 BTC leave its books for private or custody wallets.
The first negative premium on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since early 2017 may also point to the conclusion that the 2021 bull cycle still has a lot more room to run.
“Coinbase quan trọng khác chảy ra ở mức 48k. Các nhà đầu tư tổ chức của Hoa Kỳ vẫn đang mua $ BTC,” Ki Young Ju, CEO of fellow monitoring resource CryptoQuant, tweeted on Friday.
“Tôi nghĩ rằng lý do chính cho sự sụt giảm này là do môi trường vĩ mô chập chờn như trái phiếu kho bạc kỳ hạn 10 năm, không phải tiền gửi cá voi, thợ đào bán, and lack of institutional demand.”
The start of the turnaround maybe sooner than many think. In his latest analysis, pseudonymous cryptocurrency trader Rekt Capital eyed the 4-hour BTC/USD chart for proof of a turnaround.
“Pulls back but still holds the wick-to-wick Higher Low. Turn $46720 in to support (đen) and BTC will move higher. Strong bullish divergences on the 4HR are appearing as well,” he commented alongside an annotated screenshot of the chart.
Nói chuyện với Cointelegraph, the Whalemap team noted that short-term the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) — which tracks overall market profit and loss — was indicating that a deeper sell-off is off the cards, at least for now.
“Hourly SOPR shows potential for at least a short term bounce,” họ nói rằng.
Friday further sees a major expiry event on Bitcoin options, something which has dictated temporary downward pressure on BTC in the past.
The day’s low of $44,150, some say, was merely an attempt to suck up liquidity before the next leg higher.
“Đúng, market dumped after ‘mega-whales’ sold into the rally (as warned), nhưng kể từ đó, they have been buying dips!” the creator of exchange orderbook data analysis service Material Indicators observed.
“With stonks uncertainty, I don’t know how many more dips there will be, but they’re being bought!”
Cái đó “uncertainty” is being exacerbated by concerning trends in bond yields, Cointelegraph reported this week, with behavior seen as similar to before the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
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