Margin trading allows investors to borrow stablecoins or cryptocurrency to leverage their position and improve the expected return. Ví dụ, borrowing Tether (USDT) will allow one to buy Bitcoin (BTC), thus increasing their Bitcoin long position.

Investors can also borrow BTC to margin trade a short position, thus betting on price downside. This is why some analysts monitor the total lending amounts of Bitcoin and Tether to gain insight into whether investors are leaning bullish or bearish.

Are analysts flipping bearish based only on Bitfinex’s margin data?

Tuần này, some prominent analysts cited a surge in Bitcoin short positions on Bitfinex, đạt đỉnh 6,621 BTC on June 7. Như Cointelegraph đã đưa tin, independent researcher Fomocap found a visible correlation between margined short positions and the May 19 price crash.

Tuy nhiên, when analyzing a broader scope of data — including the margin longs, perpetual contracts funding rate and protective put options — there is no evidence of prominent players preparing for a surprise negative move.

A single instance of Bitcoin margin shorts spiking ahead of the negative price swing should not be considered a leading indicator. Hơn nữa, one needs to factor in Bitcoin margin longs — an opposing, usually larger force.

Bitfinex margin Bitcoin/USD longs/shorts ratio. Nguồn: TradingView

As the above chart indicates, even on May 17 the number of BTC/USD long margin contracts outpaced shorts by 3.6, tại 39,000 BTC. Trong thực tế, the last time this indicator dropped below 2.0, favoring longs, was on Nov. 26, 2020. The result was not good for the shorts, as Bitcoin rallied 64% over the following 30 ngày.

OKEx USDT/BTC lending ratio. Nguồn: OKEx

Whenever traders borrow Tether and stablecoins, they are likely long on cryptocurrencies. Mặt khác, BTC borrowing is mainly used for short positions.

Theoretically, whenever the USDT/BTC lending ratio goes up, the market is angled in a bullish manner. The ratio at OKEx bottomed at 3.5 vào tháng 5 20, favoring longs, but it quickly returned to the 5.5 cấp độ. vì thế, there is no evidence of a significant movement favoring shorts on margin markets.

The perpetual futures funding rate is still flat

Perpetual futures prices trade very close to regular spot exchanges, making the lives of retail traders a lot easier because they no longer need to calculate the futures premium.

This magic can only be achieved by the funding rate charged from longs (người mua) when demanding more leverage. Tuy nhiên, when the situation is reversed and shorts (sellers) are over-leveraged, the funding rate goes negative, and they become the ones paying the fee.

Bitcoin perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Nguồn: Bybt

As displayed above, the funding rate has been mostly flat since May 19. Had there been a massive surge for shorting demand, the indicator would have reflected the move.

The options put-to-call ratio remains bullish

Cuộc gọi (mua) tùy chọn cung cấp cho người mua của nó bảo vệ giá tăng, và đặt (bán) làm ngược lại. Điều này có nghĩa là các nhà giao dịch nhắm đến các chiến lược trung lập đến giảm giá thường sẽ dựa vào quyền chọn bán. Mặt khác, quyền chọn mua được sử dụng phổ biến hơn cho các vị thế tăng giá.

Aggregate Bitcoin put-to-call options ratio. Nguồn: CryptoRank

Take notice of how the neutral-to-bullish call options outnumber the protective puts by nearly 90%. Had professional traders and whales been anticipating a market crash, this ratio would have been positively impacted.

Investors should not make trading decisions based on a single indicator, as the remaining markets and exchanges may not corroborate it. Cho bây giờ, there is absolutely no indication that heavy players are betting on Bitcoin short positions.

Các quan điểm và ý kiến ​​được thể hiện ở đây chỉ là quan điểm của tác giả và không nhất thiết phản ánh quan điểm của Cointelegraph. Mọi động thái đầu tư và giao dịch đều có rủi ro. Bạn nên tiến hành nghiên cứu của riêng mình khi đưa ra quyết định.