Tại sao Bitcoin bị mắc kẹt dưới $60,000? Vốn hóa thị trường vàng có thể giữ câu trả lời

After rallying more than 100% trong 2021, Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be struggling to turn the $60,000 cấp thành hỗ trợ. Rốt cuộc, what is so special about this magic round number and its accompanying $1 nghìn tỷ vốn hóa thị trường?

Gold’s $11 trillion market cap might hold the answer, as Bitcoin’s current trading volume and the amount held by institutional investors seem to match 10% of the precious metal’s numbers.

Technical indicators and derivatives data provide interesting short-term insights. But to analyze cryptocurrencies in a broader context, one should focus on market capitalization, precious metals and global wealth.

More Bitcoins than in 2017

Keep in mind that the 18.67 million current BTC circulating supply is 11.2% more than existed in December 2017. vì thế, using unitary prices for longer-term comparisons can be misleading.

Bitcoin market capitalization, USD billion. Nguồn: TradingView

Các $1.1 trillion valuation translates into a 250% increase from December 2017 peak market capitalization at $327 tỷ. So because of the additional issuing, that number differs from the 200% increase of the $20,000 nominal tag versus the current $60,000.

The rise ofdigital gold

Another essential metric, vàng, the precious metal, has always been a proxy for the leading cryptocurrency. Although Bitcoin has multiple use cases, store of value has always been its flagship feature while the debate behind its commodity-like features and currency persists.

Bất kể, as the United States expanded its monetary base over the past twelve months by 53% to an astonishing $5.25 nghìn tỷ, the number of institutional investors seeking Bitcoin as a safe haven for inflation skyrocketed.

Legendary investors Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones both compared Bitcoin’s unique features with gold, triggering even more companies, người bảo hiểm, and fund managersattention.

vì thế, the comparison with gold’s market capitalization became even more relevant.

Most valuable global assets. Nguồn: 8marketcap.com

According to the above data, BTC’s current $1 trillion market capitalization translates to roughly 10% của vàng, đáng giá $11 nghìn tỷ. To assess how those markets compare, one should compare their volume traded, ETF and ETN markets, in addition to institutional holdings.

Average daily trading volumes, USD billion. Nguồn: gold.org

Trong khi đó, có đó $183 billion daily liquidity for gold, including registered over-the-counter (OTC) giao dịch, in addition to regulated futures markets and gold exchange-traded products.

Accumulated year-to-date transparent volume on April 2, đô la Mỹ. Nguồn: Danh nghĩa

Đồng thời, the daily volume for BTC is approximately $15.9 tỷ. Exchange-traded products such as Grayscale Bitcoin Fund (GBTC) add another $1.5 billion daily liquidity, dựa theo CryptoCompare. vì thế, Bitcoin của $17.4 billion average daily volume can be compared to roughly 9.5% vàng.

Gold ETF vs. Bitcoin exchange-traded products

Bitcoin’s multiple exchange-traded products such as Grayscale $GBTC and exchange-traded notes have been growing considerably. There are $58.7 billion assets under management, or AUM, locked in crypto exchange-traded products, dựa theo CryptoCompare’s tháng Ba 2021 báo cáo.

Gold held by ETF products. Nguồn: gold.org

So with gold-backed ETF products amounting to $198.8 tỷ, Bitcoin của $58.7 billion AUM represents 29.5% of this amount.

Tuy nhiên, a fair comparison needs to include physical holdings, the preferred instrument of governments and banks. Trong khi đó, regulation for most fund managers requires BTC holdings to use exchange-listed products, causing the disparity.

Ví dụ, central banks and the IMF hold 35,197 tonnes of gold, which translates to $1.96 nghìn tỷ. Gold.org estimates 44,384 tonnes are held by private investment, including ETF markets, and those are worth another $2.47 nghìn tỷ. All of this adds up to $4.41 trillion in gold held by institutional investors.

Bitcoin addresses holding 100 đến 10,000 BTC. Nguồn: Tình cảm

Với Bitcoin, addresses holding 100 đến 10,000 BTC own 48.9% of the supply, tương đương với $538 billion held by large investors.

Considering institutionsgold holdings amount to $4.41 nghìn tỷ, BTC displays a 12.2% equivalent indicator, thus supporting its current $1 nghìn tỷ vốn hóa thị trường.

Yassine Elmandjra, a crypto asset analyst at Ark Invest, believes Bitcoin has the potential to surpass gold’s $10-trillion market cap. As Bloomberg senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone puts it:

Bitcoin fills the digital reserve-asset need in a low-yield world.

McGlone goes further, Tuy nhiên, Thêm rằng “adoption of the benchmark crypto as a global reserve asset has crossed the mainstream threshold,” which could propel BTC price to as high as $400,000 trong 2021.

So to sum up, Bitcoin’s average volume traded and large investorsholdings roughly match 10% of gold’s markets. But while the $1 trillion market cap level may be a watershed moment for the next phase of Bitcoin adoption, BTC may remain pinned below $60,000 for quite some time, particularly as some analysts believe the price may only see a major surge toward the end of the year.

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Nguồn: Cointelegraph

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