2 以太坊关键价格指标证明专业交易者落后于ETH的新高

As Ether (ETH) made a $2,800 all-time on April 29, so did its futures open interest. 的 $8.5 billion figure marks a 52% monthly increase and shows robust trading activity behind the meteoric price rise.

Some analysts might dismiss Ether derivatives, considering CME’s future has $355 million in open interest compared to Bitcoin’s $2.4 十亿. 然而, Ether contracts were only launched a couple of months ago. Both FTX and Deribit require 100% full-KYC for their clients, and these markets hold a combined $2 billion in ETH open interest.

Ether futures aggregate open interest, 美元. 资源: 比伯特

To this in perspective, the open interest on silver futures currently stands at $22.6 十亿. The precious metal has decades of trading history and a $1.4 万亿市值. 然而, a simple analysis of the number of outstanding contracts isn’t really helpful as these can be used for hedging.

Growth in futures is positive but not a guaranteed bullish indicator

To assess whether the market is leaning bullish, there are a couple of derivatives metrics to review. The first one is the futures premium (也称为基础), which measures the price gap between futures contract prices and the regular spot market.

3个月期货通常应与 10% 至 20% 年度保费, which should be interpreted as a lending rate.

24-hour average OKEx 3-months ETH futures basis. 资源: 偏斜

As the above chart depicts, ETH’s futures premium went berserk in mid-April, 达到顶峰 45% 年化. Although tradersFOMO played a role, this also signaled extreme optimism. While professional traders most frequently use monthly futures contracts, perpetual contracts are the go-to instrument of retail investors.

Retail investors are flat at the moment

Perpetual contracts are also known as inverse swaps, and these contracts have a funding rate usually charged every 8 小时. This fee increases as longs (buyers) use higher leverage, so their accounts get drained little by little. When a retail buying frenzy occurs, the fee can reach up to 5.5% 每个星期.

Ether perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. 资源: Coinalyze.net

As the above chart displays, the 8-hour funding rate recently peaked at 0.18% 在四月 14, 相当于 3.8% 每个星期. While this certainly contributed to the highly optimistic monthly futuresbasis, the impact has completely faded as the funding rate has been negligent over the past couple of days.

This data suggests that, compared to retail investors, professional traders are more bullish on Ether as the 3-month basis currently stands at 25% per year. This rate is higher than most stablecoin lending services offer, meaning longs (buyers) are willing to pay a premium to keep their positions open.

这里表达的观点和意见仅是 身份验证[R 并不一定反映Cointelegraph的观点. 每笔投资和交易动作都涉及风险. 您在做出决定时应该进行自己的研究.

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资源: 声电图

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