$30K BTC price imminent? This Bitcoin hodler metric hints at the next rally peak

比特币 (比特币) HODLer volume has marked previous tops and the start of bull cycles. As the dominant cryptocurrency heads towards $30,000, HODLer activity could be a useful tool to potentially gauge BTC’s next peak.

Since October, as Cointelegraph reported, the HODLing activity of Bitcoin has continuously increased. Fewer HODLers have been moving their holdings, which indicates an overall bullish market sentiment.

Bitcoin HODLer volume. 资源: Whalemap

Why HODLer activity is important to assess Bitcoin market sentiment

The term “HODLer” refers to long-time holders of Bitcoin. It is possible to track the activity of HODLers by evaluating addresses that have not moved BTC for several years.

If HODLers move their assets when the price of Bitcoin is going up, it might indicate an intent to sell to take a profit on the rally.

反过来, if HODLers move their assets when the Bitcoin price declines, it could mean they are doubling down on their investments.

因此, based on the price trend of Bitcoin, a spike in HODLer activity could signal that a major price movement is imminent.

目前, HODLer volume suggests that a prolonged Bitcoin pullback is not likely to happen. The volume remains low in comparison to previous peaks, which shows that the confidence of long-time holders remains high.

然而, HODLer volume could lag behind and begin to spike as the price of Bitcoin slumps in the near term. 如果是这样的话, the possibility of an extended correction could still emerge.

因此, it would be important to observe the HODLer volume in the near term, especially if Bitcoin struggles to rise above $30,000.

The technical momentum has been driving up the price of Bitcoin in recent months. But if that slows down, HODLers could move to sell, anticipating a correction to occur from the large number of investors sitting on unrealized gains.

BTC becoming scarcer is a variable

Until the HODLer volume spikes to previous highs, it would be premature to predict a sizable pullback in the short term.

Various macro factors, such as the declining dollar and the drop of Bitcoin liquidity, have made BTC more attractive as a store of value, particularly for institutions.

Cointelegraph previously reported that Bitcoin is becoming less liquid due to increasing HOLDer activity.

This means that there are fewer BTC that could be bought or sold, which makes BTC more scarce as it heads into 2021.

BTC liquidity class. 资源: Glassnode

拉斐尔·舒尔茨-克拉夫特, the CTO of Glassnode, emphasized that this is bullish for Bitcoin in the longer-term. 他说:

“One of the most important #Bitcoin charts in 2020. Liquidity getting squashed, investors hoarding, accessible BTC becoming scarcer. 1M BTC have become illiquid this year, i.e. are held by entities that spend < 25% of coins they receive. Less $BTC for you to buy. Bullish.”

让我们屏蔽广告! (为什么?)

资源: 声电图

正在加载...