Bitcoin traders say $43,600 needs to be regained to restore the bullish uptrend, but BTC futures and options data are showing signs of distress.
“Don’t fight the trend” is an old saying in the markets, and there are other variants of the phrase like “never catch a falling knife.” The bottom line is that traders should not try to anticipate trend reversals, or even worse, try to improve their average price while losing money.
It really doesn’t matter whether one is trading soy futures, 银, stocks or cryptocurrencies. Markets generally move in cycles, which can last from a few days to a couple of years. In Bitcoin’s (比特币) 案件, it’s hard for anyone to justify a bullish case by looking at the chart below.
在过去的 25 天, every attempt to break the descending channel has been abruptly interrupted. 好奇地, the trend points to sub-$40,000 by mid-October, which happens to be the deadline for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission decision on the ProShares Bitcoin ETF (十月. 18) and Invesco Bitcoin ETF (十月. 19).
According to the CoinShares weekly report, the recent price action triggered institutional investors to enter the sixth consecutive week of inflows. There has been nearly $100 million worth of inflows between Sept. 20 和 24.
Experienced traders claim that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $43,600 support for the bullish trend to resume. 与此同时, on-chain data points to heavy accumulation, as the falling exchange supply has been dominant.
Perpetual futures show traders neutral to bearish
To gauge investor sentiment, one should analyze the funding rate on perpetual contracts because these are retail traders’ preferred instruments. 与月度合同不同, perpetual futures (反向掉期) 以与常规现货交易所非常相似的价格进行交易.
多头每八小时自动收取资金费率 (买家) 当需要更多杠杆时. 然而, 当情况逆转时, 和短裤 (卖家) 过度杠杆化, the funding rate turns negative, 他们成为支付费用的人.
A ‘neutral’ situation involves leverage longs paying a small fee, oscillating from 0% 至 0.03% per eight-hour period, 相当于 0.6% 每个星期. 然而, the above chart shows a slightly bearish trend since Sept. 13, when the funding rate was last seen above the 0.03% 阈.
The put-to-call ratio favors bulls, but the trend has changed
Unlike futures contracts, options are divided into two segments. Call (购买) options allow the buyer to acquire Bitcoin at a fixed price on the expiry date. 一般来说, these are used on either neutral arbitrage trades or bullish strategies.
与此同时, the put (卖) options are commonly used as protection from negative price swings.
To understand how these competing forces are balanced, one should compare the calls and put options open interest.
The indicator reached a 0.47 bottom on Aug. 29, reflecting the 50,000 BTC protective puts stacked against the 104k BTC call (购买) 选项. 仍然, the gap has been decreasing as the use of neutral-to-bearish put contracts started to get traction after the Sept. 24 monthly expiry.
According to Bitcoin futures and options markets, it might seem premature to call a ‘bearish’ period, but the last two weeks show absolutely no signs of bullishness from derivatives indicators. It appears that bulls’ hope clings on to the ETF deadline acting as a trigger to break the current market structure.
这里表达的观点和意见仅是 作者 并不一定反映Cointelegraph的观点. 每笔投资和交易动作都涉及风险. 您在做出决定时应该进行自己的研究.