比特币交易所储备最低 3 年份, 这对价格意味着什么?

On-chain data shows Bitcoin exchange reserves have hit the lowest value in 3 年份, here’s what it might mean for BTC’s price.

比特币交易所储备最低 3 Years As Negative Netflows Continue

正如 CryptoQuant 帖子所指出的, exchange reserves have been continuing their downtrend, and have now reached lows not seen since 3 几年前.

The all exchanges reserve is an indicator that shows the total amount of Bitcoin held in wallets of all centralized exchanges.

An increase in the metric’s value suggests more investors are depositing their coins for withdrawing to fiat or altcoin purchasing. 另一方面, a decrease means more buyers are moving their BTC to personal wallets for hodling or OTC deals.

Here is the latest chart for the Bitcoin all exchanges reserve:

比特币兑换储备

The BTC all exchanges reserve plunges down

As the above graph shows, the value of the indicator has sharply gone down recently. The current level of the metric is the lowest it has been in the last three years.

As already mentioned before, a downtrend like this one means investors are withdrawing their coins from exchanges possibly to hodl or sell through OTC deals.

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Such values are typically bullish in the long-term as they may mean that there are more long-term holders in the market who are hodling out of exchanges.

There is another relevant indicator here, called the Bitcoin netflow, which shows the net amount of BTC entering or exiting exchanges.

A positive spike in the chart for the exchange netflows means exchanges are observing more inflows compared to the outflows. A negative value implies just the opposite.

Big spikes or a prolonged period of smaller spikes in one direction can affect the value of the exchange reserves. 自然, positive values can increase the reserve while negative ones can decrease it.

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The below chart shows the current trend for the exchange netflows:

Bitcoin Netflows

The BTC netflows show big negative spikes

正如预期的那样, the netflows have been negative recently, leading to the low values of the Bitcoin exchange reserves.

What Could It Mean for BTC’s Price?

如前面提到的, a downtrend in the exchange reserves can be bullish for the price in the long-term as it may imply a greater amount of long-term holdings. This has also been usually true historically, but there can be certain exceptions.

然而, looking at the current Bitcoin price movement, it looks like selling has been going on. But as the exchange reserves haven’t shot up (unlike the crash from the May ATH), sales are being done likely through OTC deals.

现在, depending on if most of the outflows are being done to sell through OTC deals, a bearish picture can be there instead.

比特币价格图表

BTC's price continues to decline | 资源: BTCUSD在TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, 加密数量

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