Derivatives data and strong fundamentals back retail and professional traders’ bullish stance on ETH price.
醚 (ETH) 价格上涨 32% leading up to August 23, and despite testing the $3,000 support multiple times, the level has held firmly. 与此同时, 比特币 (比特币) could not sustain the $50,000 标记, at least in the short-term. According to Cointelegraph, pro traders are not yet inclined to add bullish positions according to derivatives metrics.
出奇, the opposite situation emerges when looking at the sentiment of Ether traders who currently show a reasonable degree of confidence in the current price level.
Regulatory pressure and spectacular NFT growth back traders confidence in Ether
在星期一, 黎明树桩, a commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that:
“A trading platform that offers derivatives on digital assets to U.S. 没有登记的人, 或违反CFTC交易规则, is subject to the CFTC’s enforcement authority.”
It is unclear why Bitcoin’s and Ether’s reaction to the news would be any different, but it is worth noting that commissioner Stump is only one of four to six CFTC members on panels that regulate commodities.
与此同时, payment processor giant Visa surprised the NFT market, announcing a $150,000 CryptoPunk acquisition. 库伊谢菲尔德, the head of crypto at the $500 billion market cap company said:
“With our CryptoPunk purchase, 我们先用脚跳. This is just the beginning of our work in this space.”
For those unfamiliar, the Ethereum network is the absolute leader in the NFT segment, and a single marketplace called OpenSea has processed more than $1 billion worth of transactions in the past 30 天.
Pro traders are neutral-to-bullish according to futures markets
To understand how bullish or bearish professional traders are leaning, one should analyze the futures basis rate. The basis is also frequently referred to as the futures premium, and it measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels.
一种 5% 至 15% 预计在健康市场中的年化溢价, in a situation known as contango. This price difference is caused by sellers demanding more money to withhold settlement longer.
然而, this indicator fades or turns negative during bearish markets and flashed a red flag known as ‘backwardation’.
如上所述, 当前 11% annualized premium is neutral but much better than one month ago when the metric held below 5%. 不过, a healthy market does not need excessive optimism from pro traders, which usually ends with excessive leverage longs and a basis rate above 15%.
Options traders have been flirting with ‘greed’
排除特定于期货工具的外部性, one should also analyze options markets.
的 25% delta skew 比较类似的调用 (购买) 并放 (卖) 选项. The metric will turn positive when fear is prevalent as the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.
The opposite holds when market makers are bullish, 导致 25% delta skew indicator to shift to the negative area. Readings between negative 8% and positive 8% are usually deemed neutral.
Notice how Ether option traders have been flirting with the ‘greed’ level since Aug. 7 when the indicator dropped below the negative 8 阈. This data validates the futures contract premium, which has improved over the past couple of weeks and is currently sustaining a healthy ‘neutral’ 水平.
Derivatives data shows the pro traders that are more active on quarterly futures and Ether options trading sitting comfortably at the time of writing.
这里表达的观点和意见仅是 作者 并不一定反映Cointelegraph的观点. 每笔投资和交易动作都涉及风险. 您在做出决定时应该进行自己的研究.