稍安毋躁! $9K比特币价格下跌不是趋势变化, 数据说

After Bitcoin (比特币) price flirted with a $42,000 all-time high on Jan. 8, it stabilized in a tightening range between $39,000 至 $41,500 for two days and the pennant structure on the shorter-term timeframes hinted that a breakout to $45,000 was a possibility.

This all changed quite suddenly Jan. 10 as the $39,000 support failed to hold and Bitcoin price entered a steep correction.

BTC / USD 4小时图. 资源: 交易视图

A swirling and cruel 26.6% drop took BTC down to $30,100 over the next 30 hours and $1.5 billion in cascading liquidations at derivatives exchanges boosted the correction. 有趣的是, this occurred just as the open interest on BTC futures reached a $12.7 billion all-time high.

Derivatives exchanges BTC futures open interest in USD. 资源: Bybt.com

Today’s price action presents a story of doom, gloom and liquidations, but what it fails to mention is that the Bitcoin price crashed by 20.4% just one week ago as it tested sub $28,000 等级.

During that similar price event, a total of $1.2 billion in long contracts were liquidated, so the price action of today isn’t so different from what the market experienced just a week ago on Jan. 11.

BTC / USD 4小时图. 资源: 交易视图

As the chart above shows, BTC bounced back by 11% one hour after dropping below the $28,000 水平. What might have surprised traders this time around is the 13% bounce from $32,200 至 $36,400 which created a false bottom.

To understand if that’s the case, one should analyze crypto exchangestop traders long-to-short ratio and hourly liquidations.

OKEx top traders bought the top

Exchange-provided data highlights traderslong-to-short net positioning. By analyzing every client’s position on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can obtain a clearer view of whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

With this said, there are occasional discrepancies in the methodologies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Top traders BTC long/short ratio. 资源: Bybt.com

The top traders at Binance averaged a 23% position that favored longs over the past 30 天. This wasn’t the case on Jan. 7, when they started adding long positions until reaching a 59% peak in the early hours of Jan. 10.

This move took place as BTC broke the $37,000 resistance and paved its way to $41,500. 因此, Binance top traders have been mostly reacting after each BTC price move instead of trying to anticipate it.

另一方面, top traders at Huobi averaged a 0.91 long-to-short ratio over the last 30 天, thus favoring net shorts by 9%. From Jan. 8 to the early hours of Jan. 10, these traders had been increasing their shorts, hence profit-taking as BTC failed to break the $42,000 水平.

This trend reverted as BTC lost the $39,000 支持, and Huobi’s top traders reduced their 28% net short to 4% in an attempt to catch the bottom.

最后, OKEx top traders have been adding long positions, driving the indicator from 1.00 (flat) in the early hours of Jan. 8 to a 1.79 ratio favoring longs in the early hours of Jan. 11.

These traders bought the top and were the ones who were heavily liquidated as the BTC price crashed by 26%. Their long to short ratio hit 1.00 (flat) again just as BTC hit $34,000 一月. 11.

Bitfinex traders were also caught by surprise

Bitfinex gathers weekly data on top tradersprofit and loss, although it is possible for users to ‘opt-outfrom this ranking. Over the past 24 小时, the bottom 10 lost a combined $153.3 百万.

Bitfinex top traders weekly profit & loss. 资源: 比特币

Relevant losses during a surprise crash should not mean that Bitfinex traders got it all wrong. Some traders might have been ill-positioned, but overall they have been profit-taking during the rally. As of now, Bitfinex traders are back to a ‘neutralposition according to its historical levels.

Bitfinex BTC long to short ratio (蓝色) vs BTC price (橙子). 资源: 比特币

Exchange-provided data shows that Bitfinex’s long-to-short ratio increased from 2 至 9, favoring longs between Nov. 25 和十二月. 21.

To put things in perspective, its 6-month moving average stands at 6, leaning toward longs. 从而, considering its leverage data from margin products, these traders have been surprisingly profitable.

20% of crashes are the norm rather than exception

It’s also important to consider that Bitcoin holds a 3.75% daily average volatility. 因此, these large corrections should be expected.

Bitcoin faced a 50% intraday decline on Mar. 12, 2020, yet for those patient enough to hold through those bearish periods, an 11x rally followed as the cryptocurrency hiked from $3,600 几乎 $42,000.

这里表达的观点和意见仅是 author 并不一定反映Cointelegraph的观点. 每笔投资和交易动作都涉及风险. 您在做出决定时应该进行自己的研究.

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