Bitcoin has been moving sideways in the past day after a 20% dropped at the start of the week. The first cryptocurrency by market was showing strong conviction to the upside, but ultimately the excessive greed in the market could have played against the bulls.
在撰写本文时, 比特币交易价为 $46,875 与 1.2% 每日图表获利.
A recent report by QCP Capital confirmed that the flash crash was preceded by an increase in leverage positions on the derivatives sector. The firm previously warned about the potential downside risk as derivatives were signaling “nervousness” amongst investors.
When the price of Bitcoin broke the $52,000 屏障, the outlook “worsened”, 公司说. 此外, there was a sentiment of “disbelief” in the market that the rally that took Bitcoin into those levels was unable to “fail”.
In previous months, 可能, 六月, 和七月, a similar situation occurred with a “Buy the rumor, sell the news” catalyzer, in this case the implementation of the Bitcoin Law in El Salvador. In addition to an increase in fair and uncertainty due to the Securities and Exchange Commission (美国证券交易委员会) cracked down on crypto exchange Coinbase.
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从这个意义上说, investor Alex Wice took to Twitter to announced that he has “exited” his Bitcoin position. Wice believe the outlook in the market has changed with the recent crash.
The rally from near BTC’s price yearly open started driven by a fresh surge in institutional investment. Wice highlighted the participation of Alameda Research, the investment arm of crypto exchange FTX, as bullish factor previous to the crash. 然而, 他加了:
Since this nuke, longs are no longer cozy. We’ve changed from up only to ball game – we update for nukes to be much more likely now. Overleveraging is back. Post bounce, longs are low edge. We could even goblin town.
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从这个意义上说, Bitcoin follow two scenarios, more “crab like” price action in the coming days, as it did during May, and June, or a straight dropped most likely back into the $30,000 等级.
Analyst Ben Lilly has found a correlation with the recent price action to the downside and a cool off in the non-fungible tokens (NFT) sector. As Ben Lilly pointed out, the EIP-1559 update as made Ethereum more susceptible to variations in on-chain activity.
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相似地, Ethereum was one of the cryptocurrencies leading the market during the rally. 此外, Bitcoin fundamentals and other indicators turned bearish suggesting a pullback, Ben Lilly added:
(…) even the morning of the drop we witnessed a transaction that tends to take place when a “by the dip” opportunity is likely to happen. This is what I mean when I saw a few odd transactions took place onchain that led us to believe some of this was premeditated.
Bitcoin could be at a turning point, according to the analyst. 接下来的日子, the fate of the bull-run could be decided if BTC’s price continues to trend to the downside to form a “Bull/Bear Divide”, 如下所示.
In that context, long term BTC holders will become importance. Their activity, as measured by the Spent Output Age Bands (In pink below), could indicate a “liquidity exit”.
考虑到这一点, the analyst doesn’t rule out a potential short squeeze and more continuation if that holds, Ben Lilly added:
With a quick change in sentiment the market will sometimes prey on overly bearish behavior. Meaning price can quickly squeeze out shorts who entered late. Once this easy pickings scenario plays out we’ll see how the structure looks. If it’s a big squeeze then maybe we can get another attempt at $53k.